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You know that feeling when you’re waiting for the cable guy, and they said ’between 8am and 6pm, and you waste your entire day, and they never show up?
Now imagine that, except the cable guy is ‘electricity,’ the day is ‘50 years,’ and you’re one of 600 million people. At some point, you stop waiting and figure it out yourself.
What’s happening across Sub-Saharan Africa right now is the most ambitious infrastructure project in human history, except it’s not being built by governments or utilities or World Bank consortiums. It’s being built by startups selling solar panels to farmers on payment plans. And it’s working.
Over 30 million solar products sold in 2024. 400,000 new solar installations every month across Africa. 50% market share captured by companies that didn’t exist 15 years ago. Carbon credits subsidizing the cost. IoT chips in every device. 90%+ repayment rates on loans to people earning $2/day.
And if you understand what’s happening in Africa, you understand the template for how infrastructure will get built everywhere else for the next 50 years.
Today we are looking into:
* Why the grid will never come (and why that’s actually good news)
* How it takes three converging miracles (cheap hardware, zero-cost payments, and pay-as-you-go)
* 2 case studies on how it works on the ground
* Whether this template works beyond Africa (spoiler: it already is)
The next cohort of our accelerator launches soon, and applications are still open (but spots are limited). If you’re ready to fight climate change, don’t wait:
Here’s a stat that should make you angry: 600 million people in Sub-Saharan Africa lack reliable electricity. Not because the technology doesn’t exist. Not because they don’t want it. But because the unit economics of grid extension to rural areas are completely, utterly, irredeemably fucked.
The traditional development playbook goes something like this: Chapter 1, build centralized power generation. Chapter 2, string transmission lines across hundreds of kilometers. Chapter 3, distribute to millions of homes. Chapter 4, collect payments. Chapter 5, maintain the whole thing forever.
This worked great if you were electrifying America in the 1930s, when labor was cheap, materials were subsidized, and the government could strong-arm right-of-way access. It works less great when you’re trying to reach a farmer four hours from the nearest paved road who earns $600 per year.
Let me show you the math:
* Cost to connect one rural household to the grid: $266 to $2,000
* Payback period: 13-200 months (if you can even collect payments)
So utilities do what any rational actor would do: they stop building where the math stops working. Which is exactly where the people are.
This has been the development sector’s dirty little secret for 50 years. “We’re working on grid extension!” Translation: we’re not working on grid extension because the economics are impossible, but we need to say we’re working on it so we keep getting donor money.
Meanwhile, 1.5 billion people spend up to 10% of their income on kerosene, diesel, and other dirty fuels. They walk hours to charge their phones. They can’t refrigerate medicine or food. Their kids can’t study after dark. Women inhale cooking smoke equivalent to two packs of cigarettes daily.
While everyone was arguing about feed-in tariffs and utility-scale solar, something wild happened to solar costs:
That’s a 99.5% decline in 45 years. Moore’s Law except for sunshine.
Want to learn how solar got cheap? Welcome to Climate Drift - the place where we dive into climate solutions and help you find your role in the race to net zero…
But here’s what’s even crazier: the price of complete solar home systems:
Battery costs also collapsed 90%. Inverters got cheap. LED bulbs got efficient. Manufacturing in China got insanely good. Logistics in Africa got insanely better.
All of these trends converged around 2018-2020, and suddenly the economics of off-grid solar just… flipped. The hardware became a solved problem.
But there was still a massive, seemingly insurmountable barrier: $120 upfront might as well be $1 million when you earn $2/day.
This is where the story gets interesting.
Quick history lesson: In 2007, Safaricom (Kenya’s telco) launched M-PESA, a mobile money platform that let people transfer cash via SMS.
Everyone thought it would fail. Why would anyone use their phone to send money?
By 2025: 70% of Kenyans use mobile money. Not in addition to banks. Instead of banks. Kenya processes more mobile money transactions per capita than any country on Earth.
It worked because it solved a real problem: Kenyans were already sending money through informal networks. M-PESA just made it cheaper and safer.
Here’s why this matters: M-PESA created a payment rail with near-zero transaction costs. Which means you can economically collect tiny payments. $0.21 per day payments.
This broke open a financing model that changes everything: Pay-As-You-Go.
This is the unlock. This is the thing that makes everything else possible.
The system has a GSM chip that calls homeAfter 30 months = you own it, free power forever
The magic is this: You’re not buying a $1,200 solar system. You’re replacing $3-5/week kerosene spending with a $0.21/day solar subscription (so with $1.5 per week half the price of kerosene) that’s cheaper AND gives you better light, phone charging, radio, and no respiratory disease.
The default rate? 90%+ of customers repay on time.
Why? Because the asset actually works. It delivers value every single day. The alternative is going back to kerosene lamps in the dark. Nobody wants that.
This is the “innovation” that everyone missed. The hardware got cheap, but PAYG made it accessible. And mobile money made PAYG economically viable.
Now let’s talk about what happens when you combine these three things with 2 case studies.
23 million solar products sold in 2023, serving 40 million customers in 42 countries, and targeting 50 million units by 2026.
Their product range spans from handheld solar lamps to multi-room home solar kits and clean LPG stoves
Want to dive deeper? I got a casestudy for youHow Pay-As-You-Go solar can unlock energy equity in Africa👋 Welcome to Climate Drift: your cheat-sheet to climate. Each edition breaks down real solutions, hard numbers, and career moves for operators, founders, and investors who want impact. For more: Community | Accelerator | Open Climate Firesides | Deep Dives…
Each turn of the wheel makes the next turn easier. This is a compounding moat.
And here’s what nobody outside Africa understands: Sun King has 50%+ market share in their category. They’re not scrappy startup. They’re a dominant infrastructure provider.
This would be like if one startup owned 50% of U. S. home solar. Except the impact and the TAM is bigger because there’s no incumbent grid to compete with.
If Sun King is the lighting/household electrification play, SunCulture is the agriculture productivity play. And the numbers are even more insane.
* Farmers go from $600/acre to $14,000/acre revenue
* Zero marginal cost after payoff (no diesel!)
Okay, this is where it gets really spicy.
Remember that SunCulture solar pump displacing diesel? That’s 2.9 tons of CO2 avoided per year. Per pump.
Multiply by 47,000 pumps = 136,000 tons CO2/year. Over seven years = 3+ million tons cumulative.
Want to dive deeper? I got another casestudy for you👋 Welcome to Climate Drift: your cheat-sheet to climate. Each edition breaks down real solutions, hard numbers, and career moves for operators, founders, and investors who want impact. For more: Community | Accelerator | Open Climate Firesides | Deep Dives…
Now here’s the hack: Someone will pay for that.
Enter carbon credits. SunCulture is the first African solar irrigation company with Verra-registered carbon credits. Each ton of avoided CO2 can be sold for $15-30 (high-quality agricultural credits, not sketchy forest offsets).
Let’s do the flywheel again, but this time turbocharged with carbon credits.
It gets even better: there are people who will pay for credits beforehand.
British International Investment (UK’s DFI) pioneered this with SunCulture: they provided $6.6M in “carbon-backed equipment financing.” They bear the carbon price risk, SunCulture gets upfront capital, farmers get 25-40% cheaper pumps.
This is how it should be: The climate impact that was an externality is now a revenue stream. The global North’s carbon problem subsidizes the global South’s energy access.
A quick note on MRV
Okay, so you might know I have… issues with the carbon credit world, especially MRV(monitoring, reporting, verification). Here monitoring is IoT-based, the MRV costs are near-zero. No expensive field audits. The telemetry data proves the pump is running = proves diesel is displaced = proves carbon is avoided.
The carbon credit mechanism turns climate infrastructure into an asset class. Which means you can finance it at scale.
Btw this is how the largest forest of the US is now being financed:
Chestnut Carbon buys degraded farmland across the Southeast, replants biodiverse native forests, verifies long-term carbon removal, and signs long-dated offtake deals with blue-chip buyers like Microsoft. The company has acquired more than 35,000 acres, planted over 17 million trees, and aims to restore 100,000+ acres by 2030 with an expected 100 million tons of CO2 removed over 50 years.
Learn more here: 👋 Welcome to Climate Drift: your cheat-sheet to climate. Each edition breaks down real solutions, hard numbers, and career moves for operators, founders, and investors who want impact. For more: Community | Accelerator | Open Climate Firesides | Deep Dives…
So: what now?
Why is the market concentrated? Because the full-stack is really fucking hard.
Most companies can do 2-3 of these. The winners do all 10.
This creates massive barriers to entry and long-term moats. New entrants can’t just show up with cheaper panels. The moat is the full-stack execution.
Let’s do the math on how big this can get.
And that’s just Africa. Add Asia (1 billion without electricity) and you’re north of $300B-$500B.
But here’s the thing: this massively understates the opportunity.
The solar system is the Trojan horse. The real business is the financial relationship with 40 million customers.
Because what you’re really doing is creating a digital infrastructure layer that enables:
So the actual TAM? It’s whatever the total consumer spending is for 600M people rising into the middle class.
Okay, let’s zoom out. What happens when 100M+ people get electrified through this model?
But here’s the meta-point: This is the template for building infrastructure in the 21st century.
Not government-led. Not centralized. Not requiring 30-year megaprojects.
Instead: modular, distributed, digitally-metered, remotely-monitored, PAYG-financed, carbon-subsidized infrastructure deployed by private companies in competitive markets.
This is how things will get built going forward.
So what could go wrong?
Let’s start by making clear this is not a one size fits all solution:
PAYG solar works for households and smallholders. Doesn’t work for factories or heavy industry. This isn’t a complete grid replacement.
1. FX Risk Companies raise dollars, buy hardware in dollars, collect revenue in Naira/Shillings. Currency crashes can blow up unit economics overnight.
2. Political/Regulatory Risk
Governments could impose lending restrictions, tariffs on solar imports, or subsidize grid/diesel to protect state utilities.
3. Default Risk
10% default rate is good but fragile. Economic shocks, droughts, or political instability could spike defaults.
4. Maintenance Complexity
Panels last 25 years, batteries 5 years, pumps break. Building service networks across rural Africa is expensive.
5. Carbon Price Volatility
Carbon credits crashed from $30/ton to $5/ton in 2024. If 25-40% of affordability comes from carbon revenue, price swings hurt.
6. Competition from Grid
What if governments actually build the grid? (Unlikely given economics, but possible with enough subsidy)
Port congestion, customs delays, tariff swings, China export controls, and last-mile logistics can delay installs, raise COGS, and tie up working capital.
Fun fact: Sun King is now producing their devices in Africa, cutting $300 Million in imports over the next years.
Okay, the bear case is important. But let’s talk about the scenarios where this doesn’t just work: it goes 🏒.
Solar panels dropped 99.5% in 45 years. What if we’re only halfway through?
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Read the original on climatedrift.substack.com »
For as long as I have published my books, one of my overarching goals was to give credit to those who actually invented the hardware and software that we use.
I have spent 10,000+ hours to create an accurate record of their work but I’m not complaining. The ‘as-close-to-possible’ truth of invention by individuals or teams meant identifying the work, educating myself, writing questions, and sending emails. And after that process, I set up a chat because it all gets down to talking to someone on the other side of the world, about something that happened 30 or 40 years ago.
If the invention involves a team, I try to interview more than one person, so I can cross-check the facts. Not to call anyone out, it’s just that, given time, we all forget the facts. And everyone adds their personal take. It’s because of that, for example, that I know the English musician Peter Gabriel really did visit Apple’s research labs as they tested the Apple Sound Chip, and gave the team his personal approval to use the song ‘Red Rain’ for the Macintosh II launch. Wil Oxford, Steve Perlman, Mike Potel, Mark Lentczner and Steve Milne told me so.
As I was wrapping up Version 2.3 of Inventing the Future, I spoke with Steve M and Mark about the AIFF (Audio Interchange File Format) audio standard that they built around the same time as their VIP visit. They did so as professional programmers, amateur musicians and electronic music experts. Milne and Lentczner knew users needed a standard file format to make their work lives easier and to fend off confusion in the nascent MIDI marketplace. But it didn’t exist. So Steve and Mark consulted with users and manufacturers in the Apple cafeteria after hours. This work is interesting on its own but it also underpinned other research. The AIFF, Apple Sound Chip, and MIDI Manager work scaffolded QuickTime and its extensible video formats and programs in 1991. Senior engineer Toby Farrand told me:
Audio drove the development of QuickTime more than anything.
So who or what drove the development of AIFF?
Steve and Mark referred me to the IFF (Interchange File Format (IFF) and the TIFF (Tag Image File Format) that were built before AIFF, in 1985 and 1986 respectively. These file formats were the benchmark for open media standards. My search pivoted, as it always does, to understand those inventions. I expected to be able to find the engineer or engineers names, track them down and interview them. It has worked around 100 times before.
Jerry Morrison created IFF while working at Electronic Arts and then went to Apple, where he liaised with the AIFF team. I could easily background his work.
So I turned my attention to TIFF, built initially as an image standard for desktop publishing. TIFF was able to store monochrome, grayscale, and color images, alongside metadata such as size, compression algorithms, and color space information. In many ways, it was a lot like AIFF so I was keen to know more. But I couldn’t find a TIFF creator. No matter how I enquired, Aldus created TIFF.
To be clear, while a search for AIFF will offer up a company (Apple) not a person, I was able to find Milne and Lentczner in part because of their unique names and because Apple publicised the AIFF work and those publications are archived.
All I had was Aldus, an American company that created desktop publishing with the help of Apple and Adobe. In fact, Paul Brainerd, the cofounder of Aldus coined the term ‘desktop publishing’ to quickly explain the technicality of what they were doing to potential investors. But Aldus and their seminal product, PageMaker, are long gone, and there were no breadcrumbs for TIFF’s creation.
Finally, after a day-long trawl through MacWeek back issues, I found Steve Carlson. (below)
Then I ran a similar length search through the Computer History Museum’s amazing Oral Histories transcriptions. Brainerd mentioned Carlson’s name in an interview. (below)
But it was too brief an explanation so I kept looking. Then the trail went cold.
And that was because, folks had misspelt his name when quoting him and then that was copied into magazines, and reviews and so forth. Brainerd’s CHM interview transcript was wrong. But I didn’t know that.
I just kept looking for Steve Carlson.
I found other inventors because they had unique middle or last names or by random methods such as searching glider pilot licences in the Napa Valley after a tip from a former colleague that ‘so and so’ was a pilot in retirement. I had no tips, no links, nothing.
All the while, the answer was right under my nose. I had downloaded the final Aldus TIFF specifications document, hoping to find the author’s name. However, the name is seemingly written in white text on white paper - making it invisible. What?
See below where I have highlighted the region with a blue block over the text.
For a reason I can’t recall, I downloaded a plain text version and typed in Carlson to see if he was mentioned, but I must have paused at ‘Carls…’ and the search functionality automatically filled in the rest. Suddenly I was staring at:
A quick trip to Google patents, and a search for Steve Carlsen, Stephen Carlsen. Bingo! Stephen E. Carlsen’s patents at Aldus (and Adobe) in Issaquah, WA.
I checked the geography, as most folks of a certain age do not stray far from the addresses filed in their patents, and typed Stephen’s correctly spelled surname into the online US White Pages for Washington State. There was ‘a’ Stephen Carlsen listed in a retirement village in WA. His age matched, but there were no public facing email addresses.
I searched bulletin boards on the topic of TIFF, as I had found a former Apple engineer that way. Don had picked an abbreviation of his initials and numbers to post on BBS in his college days and then carried that same combination into adulthood. Many of us did. I took a punt pasting his unique prefix into hotmail, gmail etc. and found Don and interviewed him, but - Stephen Carlsen did not show up in a BBS. So, no email to try.
My ‘last straw’ method for finding someone is a stamped envelope. I wrote, printed and mailed a one-page letter to Stephen’s listed address, and crossed my fingers. Four months later he popped up in my email.
It was a surprise and a relief. We swapped a few emails, and he confirmed the TIFF catalyst story. For Stephen it was ‘no big deal’. Once he had built the initial TIFF, Aldus needed to convince 3rd party developers and scanner manufacturers to agree to TIFF as a standard.
“We had to define and promote an industry standard for storing and processing scanned images, so that we wouldn’t have to write import filters for every model of every scanner that would soon be entering the budding desktop scanner market.”
Stephen himself did much of the evangelizing as Paul Brainerd later pointed out:
“(Steve) developed the standard, and then we went out and promoted it in a series of meetings with specific companies - as well as some workshops we ran in Seattle and the Bay Area during the Seybold shows and the MacWorld shows.”
I sent Stephen a draft of what I had written and he sent a prompt reply saying - ‘Looks good’.
I followed up asking him how he ended up at a tiny startup in Seattle called Aldus.
At that time, I was interviewing for a graphics position at Boeing Computer Services in Seattle, and noticed a small wanted ad that sounded really interesting, and seemed to be an excellent match for my background and interests. I interviewed with Paul and the 5-person mostly-ex-Atex engineering team, and I was hired.
Out of curiosity I put Stephen’s email address, now that I knew it, into a Duck Duck search and found him helping people online with TIFF queries long after Aldus had been acquired by Adobe. He also contributed to a Google Group called tiffcentral.
Having interviewed so many people across more than a decade, I’ve got pretty good at judging those who would like to talk or type, those who are verbose and those that are not. I knew Stephen had said what he was going to say. I added his pioneering work on TIFF to the AIFF story and moved on.
Two years had flown by when I received an email yesterday. His ex-wife Peggy found my paper letter and wrote to me. Stephen passed away earlier this year.
Thank you for your interest in and support of Stephen’s brilliant work creating TIFF. I’m not surprised Stephen didn’t finish corresponding with you, as he had begun to struggle with using his computer and phone. Some days were better than others for him, but he began to lose touch with people during those months you were reaching out to him. He was a humble man, and I guess never pushed to be recognized, although I believe those who worked with him knew the truth. His last week was in my home, where he was never left alone.
Peggy finished the email with, ‘I called him Mr TIFF up to his last moment.’
The 10,000+ hours of book research disappeared in an instant. As sad as it was, I could see clearly that all of my work was worth it. Every single second. Because of this email.
Last night, as everyone in my house went to sleep, I took a deep breath and edited the Wikipedia page for TIFF, the Tag Image File Format.
It no longer reads ‘created by Aldus’, it reads ‘…created by Stephen Carlsen, an engineer at Aldus’
...
Read the original on inventingthefuture.ghost.io »
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It is one of the most mysterious and, at the same time, best-known websites on the internet. Archive.today has built up a user base over a period of more than ten years who use the service to access previous snapshots of a web page. So basically like the Wayback Machine of the Internet Archive, only largely free of rules and presumably therefore also anonymous. To the chagrin of the media industry, the service is also often used to bypass paywalls. This is also possible because the service does not adhere to common rules and laws and offers no opt-out option.
And so far, the operators have gotten away with it. Although there have been minor problems in the history of the service occasionally, for example, a top-level domain operator denied them further use of one of the many archive domains. However, the operation of the project, which is allegedly financed by donations and own funds, was not seriously endangered.
But now the operators of archive.today are apparently fearing bigger trouble. In recent months and years, they had become noticeably quieter. Until two years ago, for example, questions were regularly answered in the blog. In the official X account, which had been silent for over a year, a new post appeared at the end of October new post. “Canary,” it said there, along with a URL. The mentioned canary bird is likely an allusion to an old custom in mining. A canary brought along warned the miners when it keeled over dead about the threat of invisible gas.
The deadly danger that the site operators fear is apparently linked to the PDF linked in the X post linked PDF. It contains a court order that the US investigative authority FBI has obtained. It instructs the Canadian provider Tucows to hand over comprehensive data about the customer behind archive.today. It concerns address and connection data as well as payment information. If Tucows does not provide the data, penalties are threatened. Whether the court order is genuine and how the operators of the site obtained it could not be verified so far.
Why the FBI is currently interested in archive.today, which is also accessible under the domains archive.is and archive.ph, is not evident from the court order. However, there are several obvious starting points for investigations: in addition to the obvious reason of copyright issues, the investigators could also be pursuing suspicions about unclear financing, the origin of the operators, or the technical approach.
In 2023, Finnish blogger Janni Patokallio compiled various clues and research results in a post in a post. According to this, Archive.today uses a botnet with changing IP addresses to circumvent anti-scraping measures. There are also indications that the operator(s) are based in Russia. Another private investigation from 2024 comes to a different conclusion. It names a software developer from New York as the alleged operator. According to this investigation, following the trail to Eastern Europe proved to be a red herring.
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Read the original on www.heise.de »
For New York’s No 1 Socialite, A. C.
1) Prioritize your ease of being over any other consideration: parties are like babies, if you’re stressed while holding them they’ll get stressed too. Every other decision is downstream of your serenity: e.g. it’s better to have mediocre pizza from a happy host than fabulous hors d’oeuvres from a frazzled one.
2) Advertise your start time as a quarter-to the hour. If you start an event at 2:00, people won’t arrive till 2:30; if you make it 1:45, people will arrive at 2:00.
3) Invite a few close friends to come 30-60 mins earlier to set up / eat dinner with you / hang out / whatever, so that when the start time approaches you’re already having fun instead of stressing that nobody will come.
4) Most people will only go to a party where they expect to know 3+ others already.
5) Use an app like Partiful or Luma that shows the guest list to invitees. Start by inviting your closest friends, get some yesses, then expand from there.
6) Send the invites in chat groups (or visibly cc’ed emails) to clusters of 4-5 people who know each other, so they can see that their friends are also going.
7) When inviting people individually, namedrop mutual friends who are invited or coming.
8) In a small group, the quality of the experience will depend a lot on whether the various friends blend together well. Follow your instinct on this, even if your instinct feels rude. It’s like cooking a dish, two ingredients can each be fabulous and still not go well together.
9) A large party is more like an Everything Soup: you mainly need to avoid ingredients that ruin the flavor for everyone else; beyond that you can mostly throw in whatever and see what works.
10) Regardless, try not to feel bad about not-inviting someone if your heart says they would make the party less-fun for others. Make peace with gatekeeping because if you don’t exclude a small % of people you will ultimately lose everyone else. Someone can be a good person and a bad fit for your party, so don’t think of it as a judgement on their soul. All of this is easier in theory than in practice.
11) Most events are better when roughly gender-balanced. Prioritize inviting people of the gender you’d likely have fewer of, then top up invites with the other. Once an event crosses a threshold (maybe 70%?) of male-or-female dominance, most people of the other gender are likely to decline (or just not-come to your next party) as a result. So there’s ultimately two equilibria, “roughly gender balanced” and “extremely uncomfortably unbalanced,” and you need to stay in the attraction basin for balance. To do this, keep your invite ratio at worst 60-40 in either direction, in order to prevent a downward spiral.
12) Co-host parties with someone you like a lot but who isn’t in your exact social circle, so that your two friend-sets can intermingle.
13) Figure out the flake rate in your social circles (the % of people who will RSVP yes and flake on the day), and set your invite numbers with that in mind. In my circles, consistently 1/3rd of people who say they will be there will actually not.
14) Couples often flake together. This changes the probability distribution of attendees considerably, and so your chance of losing a quorum in a small-group setting. Small-group couple-events (e.g. 3-4 couple dinner parties) are very hard to manage in a high-flake society, as a result.
15) Create as much circulation at your party as you can. People circulate more when standing than when sitting, so try to encourage standing for those who can e.g. by having high-top tables, or taking away chairs from around tables, or leaving shelves and counter-tops open for people to rest their plates and drinks.
16) Put the food in one part of the room and the drinks in another, or spread the food and drinks out around the space, so that people have lots of excuses to move around the room.
17) If someone arrives at your party and doesn’t know anybody, welcome them and then place them with another group or person. Ideally you can pick someone they’d specifically get along well with, at second-best just someone who’s friendly and easy to talk to, but ultimately you can just insert them in any group that’s nearby and open. The main point is to prevent them having to butt in on strangers themselves, which for many people is mortifying, while your Host Privilege allows you to do it for them.
18) To leave a group conversation, just slowly step back and then step away. Don’t draw attention to your leaving or you’ll be pulled back in. It feels mildly weird to do this but it’s worth it.
19) Throughout the party, prioritize introducing people to each other and hosting the people who are new or shy, even at the cost of getting less time hanging out with your best friends yourself. Parties are a public service, and the guests will (hopefully) pay you back for this by inviting you to parties of their own.
20) Let me repeat that: Parties are a public service, you’re doing people a favor by throwing them. Someone might meet their new best friend or future lover at your gathering. In the short term, lovely people may feel less lonely, and that’s thanks to you. In the long term, whole new children may ultimately exist in the world because you bothered to throw a party. Throwing parties is stressful for most people, but a great kindness to the community, so genuinely pat yourself on the back for doing this.
21) The biggest problem at many parties is an endless escalation of volume. If you know how to fix this, let me know.
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Read the original on www.atvbt.com »
It finally happened. Linux gamers on Steam as of the Steam Hardware & Software Survey for October 2025 have crossed over the elusive 3% mark. The trend has been clear for sometime, and with Windows 10 ending support, it was quite likely this was going to be the time for it to happen as more people try out Linux.
As of the October 2025 survey the operating system details:
The snapshot chart from our dedicated Steam Tracker page shows the clear trend:
Overall, 3% might not seem like much to some, but again - that trend is very clear and equates to millions of people. The last time Valve officially gave a proper monthly active user count was in 2022, and we know Steam has grown a lot since then, but even going by that original number would put monthly active Linux users at well over 4 million. Sadly, Valve have not given out a more recent monthly active user number but it’s likely a few million higher, especially with the Steam Deck selling millions.
And if we look at the distribution breakdown chart from our page:
The overall distribution numbers for October 2025:
The numbers are still being massively pumped up by the Steam Deck with SteamOS Linux, which is not surprising considering that the Steam Deck is still in the top 10 of the global top sellers on Steam constantly. And with all the rumours and leaks surrounding the upcoming Steam Frame, which will hopefully be a SteamOS Linux powered VR kit, we could see the numbers just continue to jump higher.
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Read the original on www.gamingonlinux.com »
Democrat Zohran Mamdani has won New York’s mayoral race, NBC News projects, after the 34-year-old democratic socialist energized progressives in the city and across the country while generating intense backlash from President Donald Trump and Republicans, as well as some Democratic moderates.
In his victory speech after vanquishing former Gov. Andrew Cuomo, Mamdani claimed a broad mandate and set himself up in direct opposition to Trump, who made a late endorsement against him. “In this moment of political darkness, New York will be the light,” Mamdani said.
“Together, we will usher in a generation of change, and if we embrace this brave new course, rather than fleeing from it, we can respond to oligarchy and authoritarianism with the strength it fears, not the appeasement it craves,” Mamdani said later, before challenging Trump directly.
“This is not only how we stop Trump, it’s how we stop the next one,” Mamdani said. “So Donald Trump, since I know you’re watching, I have four words for you: Turn the volume up.”
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Read the original on www.nbcnews.com »
A few months back, while playing around with , I came across something that completely derailed my plans. Strange attractors - fancy math that creates beautiful patterns. At first I thought I’d just render one and move on, but then soon I realized that this is too much fun. When complexity emerges from three simple equations, when you see something chaotic emerge into beautiful, it’s hard not to waste some time. I’ve spent countless hours, maybe more than I’d care to admit, watching these patterns form. I realized there’s something deeply satisfying about seeing order emerge from randomness. Let me show you what kept me hooked.
Most of what I’ve learned about strange attractors comes from working on this visualization. If you’re seeking advanced mathematical explanations, this might not be for you. My intention here is to share my learnings in an engaging and accessible manner.
Dynamical Systems are a mathematical way to understand how things change over time. Imagine you have a system, which could be anything from the movement of planets to the growth of a population. In this system, there are rules that determine how it evolves from one moment to the next. These rules tell you what will happen next based on what is happening now. Some examples are, a pendulum, the weather patterns, a flock of birds, the spread of a virus in a population (we are all too familiar with this one), and stock market.
There are two primary things to understand about this system:
Phase Space: This is like a big collection of all the possible states the system can be in. Each state is like a
snapshot of the system at a specific time. This is also called the state space or the world state.
Dynamics: These are the rules that takes one state of the system and moves it to the next state. It can be
represented as a function that transforms the system from now to later.
For instance, when studying population growth, a phase-space (world-state) might consist of the current population size and the rate of growth or decline at a specific time. The dynamics would then be derived from models of population dynamics, which, considering factors like birth rates, death rates, and carrying capacity of the environment, dictate the changes in population size over time.
Another way of saying this is that the dynamical systems describe how things change over time, in a space of possibilities, governed by a set of rules. Numerous fields such as biology, physics, economics, and applied mathematics, study systems like these, focusing on the specific rules that dictate their evolution. These rules are grounded in relevant theories, such as Newtonian mechanics, fluid dynamics, and mathematics of economics, among others.
There are different ways of classifying dynamical systems, and one of the most interesting is the classification into chaotic and non-chaotic systems. The change over time in non-chaotic systems is more deterministic as compared to chaotic systems which exhibit randomness and unpredictability.
Chaos Theory is the sub branch of dynamical systems that studies chaotic systems and challenges the traditional deterministic views of causality. Most of the natural systems we observe are chaotic in nature, like the weather, a drop of ink dissolving in water, social and economic behaviours etc. In contrast, systems like the movement of planets, pendulums, and simple harmonic oscillators are extremely predictable and non-chaotic.
Chaos Theory deals with systems that exhibit irregular and unpredictable behavior over time, even though they follow deterministic rules. Having a set of rules that govern the system, and yet exhibit randomness and unpredictability, might seem a bit contradictory, but it is because the rules do not always represent the whole system. In fact, most of the time, these rules are an approximation of the system and that is what leads to the unpredictability. In complex systems, we do not have enough information to come up with a perfect set of rules. And by using incomplete information to make predictions, we introduce uncertainty, which amplifies over time, leading to the chaotic behaviour.
Chaotic systems generally have many non-linear interacting components, which we partially understand (or can partially observe) and which are very sensitive to small changes. A small change in the initial conditions can lead to a completely different outcome, a phenomenon known as the butterfly effect. In this post, we will try to see the butterfly effect in action but before that, let’s talk about Strange Attractors.
To understand Strange Attractors, let’s first understand what an attractor is. As discussed earlier, dynamical systems are all about change over time. During this change, the system moves through different possible states (remember the phase space jargon?). An attractor is a set of states towards which a system tends to settle over time, or you can say, towards which it is attracted. It’s like a magnet that pulls the system towards it.
For example, think of a pendulum. When you release it, it swings back and forth, but eventually, it comes to rest at the bottom. The bottom is the attractor in this case. It’s the state towards which the pendulum is attracted.
This happens due to the system’s inherent dynamics, which govern how states in the phase space change. Here are some of the reasons why different states get attracted towards attractors:
Stability: Attractors are stable states of the system, meaning that once the system reaches them, it tends to stay
there. This stability arises from the system’s dynamics, which push it towards the attractor and keep it there.
Dissipation: Many dynamical systems have dissipative forces, which cause the system to lose energy over time. This
loss of energy leads the system to settle into a lower-energy state, which often corresponds to an attractor. This is
what happens in the case of the pendulum.
Contraction: In some regions of the phase space, the system’s dynamics cause trajectories to converge. This
contraction effect means that nearby states will tend to come closer together over time, eventually being drawn
towards the attractor.
Some attractors have complex governing equations that can create unpredictable trajectories or behaviours. These nonlinear interactions can result in multiple stable states or periodic orbits, towards which the system evolves. These complex attractors are categorised as strange attractors. They are called “strange” due to their unique characteristics.
Fractal Structure: Strange attractors often have a fractal-like structure, meaning they display intricate
patterns that repeat at different scales. This complexity sets them apart from simpler, regular attractors.
Sensitive Dependence on Initial Conditions: Systems with strange attractors are highly sensitive to their initial
conditions. Small changes in the starting point can lead to vastly different long-term behaviors, a phenomenon known
as the “butterfly effect”.
Unpredictable Trajectories: The trajectories on a strange attractor never repeat themselves, exhibiting
non-periodic motion. The system’s behavior appears random and unpredictable, even though it is governed by
deterministic rules.
Emergent Order from Chaos: Despite their chaotic nature, strange attractors exhibit a form of underlying order.
Patterns and structures emerge from the seemingly random behavior, revealing the complex dynamics at play.
You can observe most of these characteristics in the visualisation. The one which is most fascinating to observe is the butterfly effect.
A butterfly can flutter its wings over a flower in China and cause a hurricane in the Caribbean.
One of the defining features of strange attractors is their sensitivity to initial conditions. This means that small changes in the starting state of the system can lead to vastly different long-term behaviors, a phenomenon known as the
butterfly effect. In chaotic systems, tiny variations in the initial conditions can amplify over time, leading to drastically different outcomes.
In our visualisation, let’s observe this behavior on Thomas Attractor. It is governed by the following equations:
A small change in the parameter a can lead to vastly different particle trajectories and the overall shape of the attractor. Change this value in the control panel and observe the butterfly effect in action.
There is another way of observing the butterfly effect in this visualisation. Change the Initial State from cube to
sphere surface in the control panel and observe how the particles move differently in the two cases. The particles eventually get attracted to the same states but have different trajectories.
The original “butterfly effect” quote was coined by MIT meteorology professor Edward Lorenz in the 1960s. In 1961, Lorenz was running a computer simulation of weather patterns using a model with 12 variables. He left to get a cup of coffee, and when he returned, he noticed that a tiny change in one of the initial variables (from .506127 to .506) had drastically altered the entire weather pattern produced by the simulation over the next two months. This led Lorenz to the powerful insight that small changes in a complex system can have large, unpredictable consequences .He called this the “butterfly effect” - the idea that the flap of a butterfly’s wings in Brazil could set off a tornado in Texas. Lorenz presented his findings on the butterfly effect at a 1972 conference, where the term was popularized thanks to the metaphor of a butterfly’s wings provided by meteorologist Philip Merilees. You can play around with one of the attractors found by Edward Lorenz called the Lorenz Attractor in the visualisation.
This visualization required rendering a large number of particles using Three.js. To achieve this efficiently, we used a technique called ping-pong rendering . This method handles iterative updates of particle systems directly on the GPU, minimizing data transfers between the CPU and GPU. It utilizes two frame buffer objects (FBOs) that alternate roles: One stores the current state of particles and render them on the screen, while the other calculates the next state.
Setting Up Frame Buffer Objects (FBOs): We start by creating two FBOs, ping and pong, to hold the current and next state of particles. These buffers store data such as particle positions in RGBA channels, making efficient use of GPU resources.
Shader Programs for Particle Dynamics: The shader programs execute on the GPU and apply attractor dynamics to each particle. Following is the attractor function which update the particle positions based on the attractor equation.
Rendering and Buffer Swapping: In each frame, the shader computes the new positions based on the attractor’s equations and stores them in the inactive buffer. After updating, the roles of the FBOs are swapped: The previously inactive buffer becomes active, and vice versa.
1const currentTarget = flip ? ping : pong;2const nextTarget = flip ? pong : ping;3
4// Use current positions for calculations in shader5uniforms.positions.value = currentTarget.texture;6
7// Render the other on the screen8gl.setRenderTarget(nextTarget);9gl.clear();10gl.render(scene, camera);11gl.setRenderTarget(null);12
13flip = !flip;1const currentTarget = flip ? ping : pong;2const nextTarget = flip ? pong : ping;3
4// Use current positions for calculations in shader5uniforms.positions.value = currentTarget.texture;6
7// Render the other on the screen8gl.setRenderTarget(nextTarget);9gl.clear();10gl.render(scene, camera);11gl.setRenderTarget(null);12
13flip = !flip;
This combination of efficient shader calculations and the ping-pong technique allows us to render the particle system.
If you have any comments, please leave them on . Sooner or later, I will integrate it with the blog. The hacker news discussion can be found here.
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